"As I compiled the data, I unearthed a multitude of issues plaguing the Derna Valley: the fissures in the dam structures, the inadequacy of rainfall, and the recurring deluges," he disclosed to Reuters. "I also stumbled upon several reports forewarning of an impending catastrophe in the Derna Valley basin should the dams remain neglected."
In a scholarly paper he authored last year, Ashour sounded the alarm that without immediate maintenance, the city was on the precipice of a potential disaster.
"The warnings were there before. The government was well aware of the situation, whether through experts in the Public Water Commission or the foreign firms brought in to assess the dams," he affirmed. "The Libyan authorities were fully cognizant of the dire circumstances in the Derna River Valley, and the peril it posed had been known for an extended period."
This week, the catastrophic scenario foreseen by Ashour in the pages of the Sebha University Journal of Pure & Applied Sciences unfolded precisely as he had predicted.
On the night of September 10, the usually dry riverbed of Derna Wadi breached the dams designed to contain it when heavy rains inundated the hills, unleashing a devastating torrent that engulfed much of the city below. Thousands lost their lives, and thousands more are still unaccounted for.
Abdulqader Mohamed Alfakhakhri, aged 22, recounted reaching the rooftop of his four-story building and escaping the calamity. From there, he helplessly watched as his neighbors on adjacent rooftops were swept away, clutching their illuminated phones, their hands trembling, and their voices filled with terror.
As the recovery effort continues, with bodies being recovered from beneath the flattened structures and washing up on the seashore, many Libyans are furious that the warnings were disregarded, potentially preventing the worst catastrophe in the nation's modern history.
"Numerous individuals bear responsibility for this tragedy. The dams were left unattended, and now it's a disaster," lamented Alwad Alshawly, an English teacher who had spent three days aiding in body recovery as a volunteer rescuer, in an emotionally charged video posted online. "It is a human error, and no one will be held accountable."
Spokespersons for both the government in Tripoli and the eastern administration governing Derna did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS
Efforts to repair the dams above Derna date as far back as 2007, when a Turkish company was contracted for the job. In his report, hydrologist Ashour references an unpublished 2006 study by the Water Resources Ministry, underscoring "the perilous state of affairs."
However, in 2011, Libya witnessed the toppling of its long-standing ruler, Muammar Gaddafi, in a NATO-backed uprising and ensuing civil war. For several years thereafter, Derna was controlled by a succession of militant Islamist factions, including Al Qaeda and the Islamic State.
Arsenal, the Turkish company, lists a project on its website indicating that work on the Derna dams began in 2007 and concluded in 2012. The company did not respond to phone calls and email requests for comment.
Omar al-Moghairbi, spokesperson for a Water Resources Ministry committee tasked with investigating the dam collapses, informed Reuters that the contractor had been unable to complete the work due to the security situation and had not returned despite requests to do so.
Moghairbi also stated that even if the renovation work had been executed, the dams would have still succumbed to the overwhelming water levels generated by Storm Daniel's torrential rains, though the damage to Derna might have been less severe.
Two officials within the Derna municipality corroborated this account, asserting that work on the dams contracted before Gaddafi's downfall had been impossible to undertake during the city's occupation by the Islamic State and its subsequent years of siege.
Even after the eastern administration regained control of the city, the project remained dormant.
In 2021, Libya's Audit Bureau released a report citing "inaction" by the Water Resources Ministry, indicating that it had failed to advance maintenance work on the two primary dams above Derna.
The report also revealed that 2.3 million euros ($2.45 million) had been allocated for dam maintenance and rehabilitation, but only a portion of the funds had been disbursed. It did not clarify whether these funds had been expended or for what purpose.
STORM WARNING
Critics of the authorities assert that the blame extends not only to their failure to repair the dams but also for leaving Derna's residents in harm's way as the storm approached.
Darna Mayor Abdulmenam al-Ghaithi stated on the pan-Arab al-Hadath channel on Friday that he had "personally ordered the evacuation of the city three or four days before the disaster."
However, if such an order was issued, it appears it was not effectively implemented. Some residents reported hearing police urging them to leave the area, but few heeded the warning.
Other official sources advised residents to remain in place. A video shared by the Derna Security Directorate on Sunday announced a curfew, beginning Sunday night, "as part of the security measures to address the anticipated weather conditions."
Even as the catastrophe unfolded on Sunday night, the Water Resources Ministry posted on its Facebook page, reassuring residents that "the dams are in good condition and things are under control." The ministry's spokesperson did not immediately respond to requests for comment regarding this statement.
Petteri Taalas, the head of the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, asserted on Thursday that, in a country with a functional meteorological agency, the catastrophic loss of life could have been averted.
"Emergency management authorities would have been able to execute the evacuation of the populace. And we could have mitigated most of the human casualties."
FAILED STATE
Assigning culpability in Libya is a complex endeavor, with dozens of armed factions engaging in intermittent warfare, and no government exerting nationwide authority since Gaddafi's ousting.
The internationally recognized Libyan government, based in the western capital of Tripoli, holds no sway in the eastern region, where a rival administration, under the control of the Libyan National Army led by Khalifa Hafter, prevails.
In Derna, the situation is even more fraught. While Hafter's forces captured the city from Islamist groups in 2019, they continue to maintain an uneasy grip.
Libya's predicament is not due to a dearth of resources. Despite 12 years of turmoil, it remains a relatively wealthy nation, sparsely populated, and endowed with lucrative oil reserves that yield a per capita GDP surpassing $6,000.
The country boasts a lengthy history of colossal engineering endeavors, particularly in managing water resources in the arid landscape. Gaddafi's Great Manmade River, for instance, channels water some 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles) from subterranean aquifers deep beneath the Sahara to the coast.
However, since Gaddafi's demise, the nation's oil wealth has been disbursed among competing factions, each exercising control over various facets of the administrative apparatus, rendering it nearly impossible to trace where the funds flow.
Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, at the helm of the Tripoli government, attributed negligence, political divisions, warfare, and "misappropriated funds" as contributing factors to the uncompleted dam repairs.
In the eastern-based parliament located in Benghazi, Speaker Aguila Saleh sought to deflect blame away from the authorities, characterizing the events as an "unprecedented natural disaster" and urging people not to dwell on what could or should have been done.
In Derna, residents had long been aware of the perils posed by the dams, with history teacher Yousef Alfkakhri, aged 63, recounting the years of smaller floods dating back to the 1940s. Yet, the terror of that fateful Sunday night surpassed any prior experience.
"As the water began pouring into the house, my two sons and their wives, along with me, fled to the rooftop. The water was swifter than us, flowing between the stairs," he recollected.
"Everyone was praying, crying, we witnessed death," he said, describing the roaring water as resembling "a serpent."
"We lost thousands over the past ten years in all the wars, but in Derna, we lost them in a single day."
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