Predicting the trajectory of President Trump’s tariffs is a bit like forecasting next week’s weather with a dartboard. Now imagine trying to guess what 2028 looks like. As Trump continues to shake up U.S. trade policy, uncertainty looms large over the next few years—and we asked the experts what to expect.
From phones to farm equipment, import taxes now touch nearly every corner of the American economy. Under Trump’s leadership, the United States has seen some of its most aggressive tariff expansions in modern history. Average tariffs have surged—some exceeding 100%—particularly on imports from China. And as Trump barrels forward in his second term, many are wondering: Will it ever end?
To get a clearer picture, we spoke with four economists who’ve been tracking the trade chaos closely. Their consensus? Don’t count on a swift end to the tariff war.
“The Tariff Man Cometh”
Colin Grabow, associate director at the Cato Institute’s Center for Trade Policy Studies, painted a grim picture.
“Tariffs will almost certainly be higher in 2028 than when President Trump took office in January—the only question is by how much.”
Grabow emphasized that Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs has pushed the U.S. to its highest average tariff rate in over a century. Undoing this would require substantial political will—something he doesn’t see on the horizon. Both parties, he noted, are reluctant to challenge protectionist policies: Republicans defer to Trump’s popularity, while Democrats often support tariffs aligned with labor interests.
Unless Congress can muster a veto-proof coalition to roll back tariffs, Trump’s “tariff switch” may remain stuck in the ‘on’ position.
“Poison for the Economy”
Josh Bivens, chief economist at the Economic Policy Institute, warned that the uncertainty itself is more damaging than the tariffs.
“In 2028, average tariffs could be 5%. Or 25%. Or even higher. The fact that nobody can say for sure is absolute poison for every business and family in America.”
According to Bivens, this unpredictability affects every major economic decision—from factory investments and mortgages to college loans and career choices. He also criticized the policy as one that “creates almost entirely losers,” noting the possibility of insiders benefiting from advance knowledge.
If there’s one thing Bivens was sure of, it’s that this chaotic trade environment is “crushing economic growth.”
“Targeted Tariffs Will Stick”
Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, agrees that some tariffs are likely here to stay, especially those aimed at China and specific sectors like steel, aluminum, and auto parts.
“A safe bet would be to assume that significantly higher tariffs on China will remain in effect.”
Yaros anticipates that the White House might ease some tariffs by 2028—particularly on consumer goods—in an attempt to reduce inflationary pressure. But broader reciprocal tariffs could be watered down or even voted down by Congress, depending on the political climate post-2026 midterms.
“Expect More Election-Year Sweeteners”
Robert Gulotty, political science professor at the University of Chicago, focused on the political strategies likely to emerge in the run-up to the 2028 election.
“We’ll likely see the administration trying to limit blowback by distributing cash to communities hit by retaliatory tariffs—just like in 2020.”
According to Gulotty, Trump may continue using ad hoc exemptions and targeted payments to quell dissatisfaction in key voting blocs, particularly rural areas affected by trade retaliation. But he doubts these efforts will alter the fundamental unpredictability of U.S. trade policy.
“Why would any country negotiate a trade treaty with a government that’s not constrained by its own agreements?”
Looking Ahead: Is There an End in Sight?
If you’re hoping for a full rollback of tariffs by 2028, don’t hold your breath. The political and economic machinery required to reverse Trump’s trade stance is immense—and unlikely to materialize unless there’s a major shift in leadership or legislative priorities.
In the meantime, consumers may face higher prices, businesses will navigate murky waters, and America’s trading partners are bracing for a continued roller coaster.
So, will the Trump tariff war be over by 2028? According to the experts: not likely.
Want to stay informed on trade, politics, and the economy? Stay with us for updates and insights.
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